Siphamandla Mkhwanazi
FNB
Senior Economist
The latest FNB House Price Index (HPI) accelerated to 1.2% y/y in January, from 1.1% in December (revised from 0.9%). While still subdued, this marks the highest growth rate since June 2023, reflecting a gradual market recovery.
Shifting consumer behaviour and mortgage lending trends
The average loan-to-value (LTV) ratio has increased to 95.1% in 4Q24, indicating a modest improvement in lending conditions and cautious optimism among lenders. This reflects a gradual loosening of lending standards in response to an improving economic backdrop.
The 4Q24 FNB Estate Agents Survey highlighted notable shifts in first-time buyer behaviour:
There’s a noticeable reduction in reliance on unsecured credit for deposits, with more first-time buyers utilising personal savings. This is attributed to improving household finances and the early impact of the “two-pot” retirement system.Â
First-time buyer participation has risen to 25% of total market activity, with a significant 39% share in the Affordable segment. However, participation remains below 2022 levels, suggesting ongoing affordability constraints.
Growing interest in Buy-to-Let investments
Buy-to-let purchases have increased to 12% of market activity, with the Affordable segment driving much of this growth (30% of purchases). This indicates strong investor confidence and a search for alternative investment opportunities in a stabilising property market, with expected strong rental yields.
Outlook
The rising presence of both first-time buyers and buy-to-let investors in lower-priced segments underscores strong affordability-driven demand and improving confidence in property as an investment.Â
If wage growth continues to outpace inflation (as indicated by the BankservAfrica Take-home Pay Index) and interest rates decline further, housing demand for both ownership and rental should strengthen.Â
The FNB HPI is projected to climb towards 1.7% in 2025, and accelerate to exceed 3% by 2026, as market fundamentals continue to improve.