Growth areas
Areas like the Garden Route continue to benefit from semigration to the Western Cape and from the shift among those relocating to the province from Cape Town to smaller towns and villages. In addition to the Garden Route, other areas benefiting include the Western Cape’s Stellenbosch, Paarl and Franschhoek, and cities along the Whale Coast.

KEY TRENDS
Semigration: Semigration is evolving in 2025, with a continued, though slightly slower, flow of people to the Western Cape, while a “reverse semigration” trend sees individuals returning to Gauteng, primarily driven by job opportunities and the rising cost of living in coastal areas.

Western Cape remains a magnet, but pace slows: The Western Cape continues to attract more people than it loses, driven by lifestyle security, better governance, and quality of life. However, the pace of inward migration has slowed compared to previous years due to soaring property prices, increased congestion, and challenges like long school waiting lists in Cape Town and its immediate suburbs. 

In Q4, the pace of value perceptions shifting in the Cape Metro has been so rapid that it’s become challenging to pinpoint the exact fundamentals driving the seemingly limitless demand for property. While record-breaking prices and surging appetite at the very top end have dominated headlines, the same dynamic is playing out across all market segments in the Cape Metro and surrounding areas. Although stock shortages, driven by a lack of homes coming onto the market, remain a concern, the underlying fundamentals are robust. As demand continues to outstrip supply, prices are expected to maintain their strong upward trajectory, potentially leading to more stock being released.

Across the Boland and Overberg regions of the Western Cape, demand for homes remains strong, although stock shortages persist. Properties priced below R4 million are particularly sought after. When a well-maintained home, or even one in a desirable area requiring some TLC, enters the market, it often attracts multiple competing offers. In some cases, properties are selling for above the asking price. Properties within estates like Val de Vie and Boschenmeer near Paarl, and Fernkloof in Hermanus, are sought after for the lifestyle and security they offer. In the Newinbosch development in Stellenbosch, 80 of the 130 units were sold within two days in one of the recent phases launched.  

Because of the diversity of the Boland and Overberg regions, they attract a range of buyers, from young families looking for areas with good schools, such as Durbanville, Paarl, and Stellenbosch, to retirees and second-home buyers seeking coastal homes along the Whale Coast. Country towns offering good value for money have also seen an increase in demand, such as Elgin, just 20 minutes from Somerset West, where you can buy a beautiful three-bedroom home on 900 sqm, surrounded by orchards for R3.3 million. This region has had one of its best years. Although most buyers are still locals wanting to upscale or downscale, or upcountry buyers looking to semigrate, the sales and enquiries from foreign buyers and expats are consistent. Franschhoek remains a popular choice among foreign buyers. 

Gauteng’s comeback (reverse semigration): There is some evidence of a counter-trend of “reverse semigration” to Gauteng. The province is experiencing the strongest overall population growth and a resurgence in housing demand, driven by its status as the country’s economic engine and primary job market. If next year’s local elections result in a market-friendly shift in government, this could have a significant positive impact on Gauteng’s housing markets as it would not only reduce the outflow of older, more affluent homeowners but could reinforce the reverse semigration trend.

We have certainly noticed a gradual uptick in demand and activity across the Johannesburg Metro region, particularly since the recent rate cuts. The most significant movement has been in the R1 million to R3 million price segment, supported by more accessible lending conditions and the banks’ continued competitiveness. While financial pressure remains a key selling factor in Gauteng, it has eased slightly over the past year, and we are seeing more upgrading activity and first-time buyers returning, especially younger professionals taking advantage of cost-inclusive loans and favourable bank approval rates.

Confidence is undoubtedly improving, albeit cautiously, and sentiment towards property as a stable long-term investment remains strong.

There is also a notable rise in lifestyle and security-driven sales, reflecting shifting priorities among urban buyers. Many are opting for smaller, low-maintenance homes within secure estates or well-located nodes that offer convenience and community living. Despite ongoing affordability constraints, market activity in Gauteng is showing healthy resilience, with renewed buyer interest suggesting that 2026 may bring a steadier period of growth.

KZN North Coast sets new benchmark for land values: The KwaZulu-Natal North Coast continues to experience ongoing demand, with great anticipation around the Club Med Tinley development set to open mid-2026, resulting in what is colloquially known as the ‘Club Med’ knock-on effect, resulting in increased interest in local upmarket residential estates like Zimbali, Simbithi and Seaton.

We are experiencing an uptick in interest in the R10 million-plus category, with buyers prioritising lifestyle and some reverse semigration from Cape Town to KZN. In the areas just north of Durban, including Durban North, uMhlanga and Sibaya, an upturn in positive sentiment is starting to create some stock shortages, so anything well-priced sells quickly, including the upper end of the market.

Activity in residential estates such as Hawaan Forest, Signature and Gold Coast estates is brisk, while the recent R634 million in sales within just two days of launching Beachwood Coastal Estate on Durban North’s beachfront set a new benchmark for land values in the province, achieving over R10 000 per square metre and attracting mainly local buyers as well as purchasers and investors from upcountry, Dubai and Tokyo, with villas selling for up to R25 million, apartments around R15 million, and vacant erven reaching R20 million for 1 700sqm.

Rise of the Eastern Cape and smaller coastal towns: As the Western Cape becomes less affordable, prospective buyers are looking for similar lifestyles in other regions. The Eastern Cape, particularly Gqeberha and other areas, has emerged as a new semigration hotspot, offering larger properties at lower prices. Smaller, relatively affordable coastal towns like George and Knysna are also seeing a sharp upward trajectory in popularity (confirmed by building statistics, which have shown sharp increases in plans passed for these towns in recent years).

Return-to-Office mandates: The decline in fully remote work positions and the formalised return-to-office mandates from major employers (such as Vodacom and Nedbank) are drawing people back to the economic hubs of Johannesburg and Pretoria.

Reasons for selling: (Source: FNB Estate Agent Survey Q3’25):
Life-stage downscaling remains the biggest reason for selling (26%).
Financial pressure is still significant, driving one in five sales. However, this is lower than the 26% recorded in Q4’24, which was the highest percentage since the global financial crisis.
Upgraders now account for 13% of transactions, showing early signs of renewed confidence.
Emigration sales remain low at 5%, well below the long-term average of 8%.

International markets
As the EU makes the acquisition of residency and citizenship more difficult through several programme closures and changes, the likes of Dubai and Mauritius have become more prominent as viable second-residency options underpinned by a real estate component. Mauritius continues to attract South Africans and Europeans to the island to enjoy the sunny lifestyle, good year-round climate, and favourable tax regime. Likewise, Dubai continues to entice a younger workforce seeking exciting work opportunities, families seeking a safe environment, and new businesses to its booming economy. In this regard, we are delighted that the latest addition to our growing international footprint is the official opening of our Pam Golding Properties Dubai office in January 2026. In partnership with award-winning wealth firm SVN Capital, and situated overlooking the famous Palms district, we expect the Dubai market to continue on its growth path. 

That said, the Greek Golden Visa remains one of the last options for those wanting to secure EU Residency for their families. Greece itself has recently increased the investment threshold to qualify for residency to €800 000 in Athens and most of the Islands. However, one notable exception is the conversion of commercial buildings to residential developments, and this has allowed us to offer what we believe may be the last credible opportunities to gain EU Residency – without having to live in Greece. 

These are: 
Keranis Residences, a conversion of an iconic old building in Piraeus, approximately 20 minutes from the city centre of Athens and with direct access to the historic port. Keranis is a mixed-use development comprising 408 residential apartments, several retail shops, restaurants, and leisure facilities. Entry-level prices start at the minimum level of Golden Visa qualification of €250 000. The developer offers a rental fix of 3% per annum for 10 years. The developers are the Mercan Group, with whom we have worked extensively in both Portugal and Greece. Well-established, they have already completed and are trading 14 hotels in Portugal. Greek Residency is offered to the leading investor, their spouse, and minor dependent children. Residency allows the investor and their family to legally reside in Greece and travel freely throughout Schengen Europe without the need to obtain a visa. 

Kastella Bay is also located in Piraeus and within walking distance of Mikro Limo marina, offering waterside shopping and dining. It comprises only 32 units from one bedrooms starting at €250 000 to a penthouse at €1m. The penthouse could serve as an investment for four families, each contributing €250 000. The development is also less than 20 minutes from the centre of Athens. All units are fully furnished, and investors can elect to take up a 3% guaranteed rental yield from the developer. With over 50% of the units already spoken for, potential investors are advised to act quickly. 

Outlook for 2026
The positive effects of a series of interest rate cuts, still subdued price pressures, and significant fuel price reductions during 2025 on household finances have already boosted activity and price growth in the national housing market.

While it is challenging to forecast with any accuracy at the moment, it seems likely that the pace of local economic activity will strengthen somewhat next year and that there may well be further interest rate relief during the first half of 2026.

If the international oil price remains subdued and the rand remains resilient, local price pressures should subside further, providing an additional boost to local household finances and in turn, the housing market.

News that SA has been removed from the Financial Action Task Force (FATF) grey list in Oct’25 has boosted investor sentiment, particularly among foreign buyers. The delisting is expected to streamline property transactions, reduce compliance costs, and catalyse renewed interest in high-end real estate.

Overall, while the market is stabilising and showing pockets of vibrancy, a sustained recovery will depend on broader economic improvements, policy certainty and continued financial sector support. The local elections next year (2026) could go some way towards boosting consumer confidence, particularly in Gauteng, which has seen its housing market come under pressure due to the ongoing failure of service delivery. This is also true for most of the other housing markets in SA outside the Western Cape.

2026 looks like it will continue to offer good prospects in the property market, as interest rates continue to decline, SA’s GDP and revenue collections continue to increase, which, all taken together, provide for a stable and encouraging outlook for 2026.